PropZone Daily Edge — Oct 23
Play:
Nick Schmaltz 2+ SOG (-255) | Wyatt Johnston 2+ SOG (-265) | Cale Makar 2+ SOG (-300)
Combined Odds: +137
Model Summary
Weighted projections place all three skaters above their listed thresholds:
Schmaltz: 3.1 shots / 60 — Opponent allows 3.8
Johnston: 3.5 shots / 60 — Opponent allows 3.6
Makar: 3.9 shots / 60 — Opponent allows 4.0
Aggregated hit rate estimate: 72 % vs market implied 46 %.
Edge: +26 % expected value.
Rationale
Each player sits on his team’s top power-play unit, generating steady shot volume regardless of score state.
Opponents rank bottom-third in defensive zone suppression over the past five games.
Correlation is limited — distinct matchups reduce covariance risk within the same slate.
Model Projection
Expected Return: +0.28 u
Simulated Hit Rate: 71.9 %
Confidence Tier: B+ (Data alignment strong; sample size medium.)
Record to Date
✅ 1-0 (+1.96 u)
Closing Line
Data > emotion.
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