Play:
Shane Pinto 2+ SOG
Tim Stützle 2+ SOG
Evgeni Malkin 2+ SOG
Odds: +200
Model Edge: 61% vs Market 35%
EV+: +21.3%
📊 Breakdown
Shane Pinto (OTT @ BUF)
Pinto’s returned to top-line usage and immediate volume — averaging 3.6 SOG per game over his last 5, with heavy PP1 touches. Buffalo ranks bottom-8 in shot suppression vs centers.
Projection: 3.0 shots
Model Hit Rate: 68%
Tim Stützle (OTT @ BUF)
Elite zone entries and perimeter volume. Stützle’s skating and transition game consistently create shooting lanes; he’s cleared 2+ in 8 of last 10. Buffalo’s rush defense allows 10+ controlled entries per game, 5th-worst in the NHL.
Projection: 3.2 shots
Model Hit Rate: 66%
Evgeni Malkin (PIT @ DAL)
Still seeing 18+ minutes per night with consistent 2nd-unit PP touches. Dallas concedes high-danger looks from the slot, exactly where Geno operates.
Projection: 2.8 shots
Model Hit Rate: 63%
💰 PropZone Model Confidence
Player | Market Line | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
Shane Pinto 2+ SOG | -235 | 68% | +8% |
Tim Stützle 2+ SOG | -225 | 66% | +7% |
Evgeni Malkin 2+ SOG | -215 | 63% | +6% |
Combined EV+: +21.3% |